Every few month or so there appear press reports in India claiming the 3000 km range Agni III is finally ready for testing. Alas, no test actually takes place. Later, we get to read vaguely worded press reports suggesting that technical difficulties resulted in the test being rescheduled.
A Agni II missile at Rajpath
It is difficult to believe that technical glitches, discovered at the very last minutes, could have been the cause of such long and periodic delays. It is possible that some DRDO officials have been talking out of turn. However, it is most likely that tests have been postponed on several occasions due to diplomatic pressure.
The persistence of the press reports on Agni III and the lack of a categorical official denial suggests that while work on development of the missile has continued, testing has been repeatedly postponed to a more opportune moment.
A recent news item in Kashar News reinforces this hypotheses. The publication reported Mr. R.N. Agarwal, Indian Program Director, Agni, in Hyderabad as having stated on 29 Mar 2005 that Agni-III will be tested this year end.
He was quoted as saying, "Some milestones establishing technologies to make the missile more robust and much ahead of existing missiles were to be reached in the next few months"
"Project Agni is a standing example of the synergy between the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO), the developer and the Indian Army, the user. There are no delays," he emphasized.
Making the Agni III more accurate and robust makes eminent sense. Fielding a non battle worth and inaccurate nuclear weapon has its perils. Without a sub 100m CEP the Agni III could only be used for counter value targeting of Chinese cities. Their deployment, rather than enhancing our security, may well degrade it further.
The Chinese already have missile with the accuracies required for counter force targeting of Agni IIIs. Their response will be to deploy additional such missiles against India to take out the Agni III missiles that are threatening their cities! The move will be additionally destabilizing since the temptation for the Chinese to undertake a first strike will be greater.
In order to enhance our security against the Chinese nuclear threat we will need to deploy a missile that is accurate enough to be a counter force weapon and robust enough (mobile) to survive a 'take-out' counter force first strike.
Finally, while Mr. Aggarwal's sentiments about the synergy between DROD and the Indian Army could well have been expressed for the consumption of Gen. B.S. Takhar, General Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Indian Southern Command who was present when Mr Aggarwal spoke with the press, his assertion that their are no delays in the project would fit very well into the scenario that I have drawn up above.
Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur