Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh.September 14, 2009, (Sawf News) - In a post on his blog today, renowned analyst B Raman gives his views on the Chinese obsession for Tawang, a town they occupied during the 1962 conflict but later vacated.
Raman suggests that the Chinese believe a successor to the Dalai Lama will be chosen from Tawang frustrating Chinese attempts to foist its own successor to His Holiness.
Raman also plays down Chinese military incursions on the grounds that large tracts of the border are disputed and reposing faith in the Indian Army's ability to do its job.
B Raman's writings make excellent reading and usually I just soak his incisive thoughts. Of late, I have found his criticism of strategists advocating a firm response against Chinese incursions disconcerting.
Here is my comment on his post this morning.
Considering that the Chinese Tawang obsession is recent, is it possible that Tawang is not the cause of recent Chinese stridency but a manifestation of Chinese discomfort with India.
It could be China's way of telling India, sergeant major style, that getting close to the US will make things more difficult for it.
China's obsession is unlikely to be Dalai Lama centric. It is more likely US centric because it is the US support of His Holiness that makes him so relevant.
Tibet cannot be destabilized by India, or any other country in the world, without US connivance.
Chinese hostility towards India has grown as has the growing proximity between India and the US.
The US is forging deeper strategic relations with India in order to contain China. It is logical for the Chinese to remind India which neighborhood it lives in. If subtle pressure does not work, the Chinese will keep a military humiliation on the cards, something that will make India less relevant to US interests.
The location of US missile defense components in India could make the Chinese nuclear deterrent in central and eastern China ineffective. That must bother the Chinese.
Your faith in the Indian army notwithstanding, the PLA has the ability to nibble Indian territory, as it appears to be doing now, or make a much larger intrusion in Ladakh or Arunachal. Either action will embarrass India, derail its economic surge by making it focus on its military vulnerabilities, and reduce its stature in the region making it easier for the Chinese to increase their influence in our neighborhood.
Coming back to the Indian Army, we need to be objective about its abilities and not let our patriotism or political correctness cloud our judgment. Remember the Indian Army was not even aware of the occupation of hundreds of square kilometers of our territory in Kargil.
The Chinese incursions in Chumar, Ladakh occurred in January and the Army did not talk about it till September.
The self introspection done by the Army after Kargil came through more as a cover up than an overhaul considering the fact that no General was held accountable.
You are probably aware that what makes it to the press about the situation on the border is usually the tip of the proverbial iceberg.
Chinese moves are always carefully calibrated. The Chinese are not seeking a war but a reevaluation of Indian alignments. Indian reaction to their border intrusions will dictate what they do next. They will try and maneuver into a 'Heads I win, tails you lose' posture.
India needs to counter the Chinese with its own 'Tails I win, heads you lose' posture that forces the Chinese to change tack.
The only way to stop the Chinese from coveting Indian territory is to create a capability to take some of theirs. If loss of territory can be humiliating for India, it can be more so for China.
If anyone in the Indian establishment believes that India cannot or must not acquire the ability to wrest Chinese territory from them the game is over – in favor of the Chinese.
The bottom line: A military threat must be met with a military response and a diplomatic threat with a diplomatic response.
There is also a need for greater transparency on what is transpiring at the northern borders. Perhaps there is a need to make the physical positions and disputed areas along the border public knowledge.
News Copyright © Sawf News. May not be reproduced without explicit written permission