Vijainder K Thakur
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    'Times of India' misleads country with 'surgical strikes' claims
    Posted by on Monday, December 08, 2008 (EST)
    In a news story this morning, vaguely attributed to 'military brass,' the Times of India has claimed that India possess the ability to surgically strike at terrorists training camps in Pakistan.
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    A Times of India news story that India could carry out a surprise surgical strike against terrorist training camps in Pakistan using IAF aircraft like the Mirage 2000 above is pure rubbish. Photo Credit: Sawf News

    December 08, 2008, (Sawf News) - In a news story this morning, vaguely attributed to 'military brass,' the Times of India has claimed that India possess the ability to surgically strike at terrorists training camps in Pakistan.

    Nothing could be further from the truth. An attempt to carry out such a strike would likely end in severe embarrassment for the country, if not outright disaster.

    Surprisingly, the story suggests that the IAF could carry out such strikes using laser guided bombs delivered by Sukhoi-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s and Jaguars. It would have been more plausible if the capability had been attributed to an operational Brahmos missile unit with the Army, if there is indeed such a unit.

    It would be fool hardy for the IAF to undertake a strike mission into Pakistan without first softening its air defense through attacks on fighter and missile bases as well as air defense radar. But that is hardly possible if you do not first declare war!

    With Pakistani fighters and missiles in a high state of alert for such a 'surprise' strike several IAF aircraft are likely to be shot down, resulting in not just loss of face but a huge mess because pilots of the shot down aircraft are likely to be captured by Pakistan!

    Another more chilling consequence of such a 'surprise' surgical strike is that it could be construed as a nuclear attack by Pakistan. Despite the DRDO charade about our Agni missile variants, India's nuclear deterrent continues to be fighter aircraft based and a 'surprise' Indian fighter attack could be construed as a surprise nuclear attack!! Pakistan has no way of knowing if the incoming Indian aircraft are carrying nuclear or conventional bombs.

    It would be ridiculous for Pakistan to assume the attack was nuclear, but no one is crediting Pakistan with much sanity these days.

    Besides what would such a surgical strike accomplish? It is not as if the terrorists are going to be waiting in their camps to be bombed. Even if they are caught off guard, all they have to do is jump into a trench to save themselves.

    Ironically, Pakistan could carry out such a surgical strike much more easily using its Babur missiles. A Babur missile attack will not require softening of Indian air defenses and if one of the attacking missile was shot down by Indian defenses, a highly unlikely scenario, there would be no Pakistani pilot to capture!

    A Babur missile attack by Pakistan would never be construed as a nuclear attack by India because our leadership is sane and Pakistan's nuclear deterrent is missile based.

    Interestingly, I posted a comment, roughly along the same lines as above under the Times story. No prizes for guessing that it was not published!

    The press is more a perpetrator of censorship in India than a victim.

    News Copyright © Sawf News. May not be reproduced without explicit written permission


     

    Comments:

    Truth
    By Truth on Tuesday, December 23, 2008 (EST)
    I am not surprised that Times now did not publish your "views". Why bother about it?

    It is just your opinion, is it not?

    1. By the way, quit talking about defense matters here after.

    2. You have zero knowledge about India's military capabilities. (I assume that you really don't know about it, or you are one of those retired service men lobbying for foreign arms companies to get commission, I hope not).

    3. Stop putting down Indigenous efforts by India.

    4. I am sure you have no words about the approval of Akash SAM by the IAFor Huge pile of nuclear war heads built in the forests of madya pradesh, or series of Agni missiles or K15 SLBM or even INSAS which is being currently used by the soldiers. All are DRDO products.

    5. People like you, in the name of democracy and free speech, talk rubbish.

    6. Seriously, here after refrain from talking about defense matters and stop misleading the people.

    Reply to this Comment
     

    Surprised!!
    By Anadi on Wednesday, December 24, 2008 (EST)
    Hi vkthakur,

    I am surprised & taken a back by your observations vis-a-vis IAF capabilities. No doubts you have served in IAF hence know more baout it than an average Indian citizen. But and a big "But": Reading your article it sounds that IAF cannot even think of taking the air.. why? because (in your opinion) majority of the planes are gonna be shot down by SAMs (and other variants) being possessed by PAF :-O !! If this is true then Why does India spend so much in modernizing her air force? Why does not it only possess millions of SAMs?? Why to purchase 240+ Su30 MKI? Better spend money in producing more BrahMos!! Am I right Mr. Thakur?

    Further, There must be a logical reason for every nation to spend millions of its currency (of tax payers') to sustain an air force & keep on mordinizing it!! If every 2nd fighter plane is gonna be out shined by a SAM ( I know SAMs travel at super sonic speed more than a 4 gen fighter aircraft's speed) then why does USAF keep 1000+ fighter aircrafts??

    I guess you owe a reply Mr. Thakur

    Regarding your views about TOI reports & partisan reporting - I am more or less agree to your point of view!

    Anadi

    Reply to this Comment
     

    You need Stealth to take out SAM
    By flying eagle on Thursday, December 25, 2008 (EST)
    Instead of ranting at VKT - you must understand that the US never sends its F-15 or F-16 without taking out the SAMs and Air Defense radars first. It uses its B2 and F117 or Tomahawk cruise missiles to do this. it is stupid to expose your strike aircraft without taking out air defenses.

    If the SAMs remain intact then our SU-MKI survival rate is based on probability of dodging a SAM. That is a very foolish thing to do.

    Having said that I would discount any threat of the PAF taking down our aircraft. My main worry is Air Defense rather than the PAF

    Reply to this Comment
     

    Truth be told!!
    By flying eagle on Thursday, December 25, 2008 (EST)
    Truth - VKT isnt the only person to be angry at the so called indigenous efforts. For starters the forces do not need indigenous weapons but the best weapons that money can buy with a reliable maintenance service. The DRDO doesnt offer this. period. The DRDO like any other Govt organization is inefficient to the core.

    The Prithvi is a liquid fuel missile and we wasted 1000s of crores on the prithvi and if the Agni is such a success then why is it not being deployed. Fact is that our only hope in the form of a missile is the BRAHMOS which is a variant of the Yakhont. I do agree that VKT doesnt mention this. The Brahmos is probably our answer to the Babur / HATF / SHAHEEN missiles that pakistan has.

    Coming back to the point, we need to ask ourselves if we need DRDO or if it is really a drag on our military spend. if indigenous option is what we need, why dont we privatize DRDO, HAL and establish JVs with foreign partners mainly for maintenance and servicing centers. This combined with establishing standards for compatibility between different systems (i recommend israeli standards)

    Anytime we purchase a new weapon system we put in a condition that it has to be assembled in india by our public sector which is grossly inefficient. This is a farce that adds to the cost and time of deploying the system.

    For pete's sake protecting DRDO jobs is not soo important as protecting the country.

    Reply to this Comment
     

    Re: Surprised!!
    By vkthakur on Sunday, December 28, 2008 (EST)
    Anadi,

    I do not believe a majority of IAF planes will be shot down and I did not say as much. However, some are likely to be shot down. An IAF strike will achieve nothing but definitely invite retaliation. What after that?

    Both SAMs and fighter aircraft have their own place in aerial warfare; one as a weapon of defense and the other as a weapon of offense. An offensive capability is intrinsic to a viable defense, hence the need for both.

    The Mumbai terror strikes were not the first against India orchestrated by Pakistan as part of its asymmetrical war against the country, they will not be the last. They were the most dramatic till now. Expect future strikes to be even more dramatic. The truth is Pakistan is winning its war.

    It is not that India can do nothing about the terror unleashed on its people, only that its leadership is more concerned with caste and religion based vote bank politics. Indeed, I am not sure ‘leadership’ is the right word here. Who thinks of Manmohan Singh as a leader? An able economist foisted by Sonia Gandhi as the Prime Minister yes, but definitely not a leader.

    Think about it this way. If Mrs Gandhi had been the Prime Minister today, would there have been a Mumbai terror strike. And had there been one, would Pakistan have gotten away with it?

    Reply to this Comment
     

    IAF MMRCA
    By Anadi on Monday, December 29, 2008 (EST)
    Thanks Mr. Thakur for your appropriate comments,

    I being an aggressive patriotic Indian have always advocated an all out war with Pak to cease the proxy war imposed on us once & for all.

    But I respect the opinions of moderate voices in this regard.

    Mr Thakur I must thank you for launching a dedicated web portal highlighting the Indian defence systems & on going programmes besides providing an overall glimps of - Where the latest technology is moving at the world level.

    I have immense interest in Indian armed forces and try to follow each & every development / procurement / deployment programme going on at a given point of time.

    Latest of these is the IAF MMRCA competition.

    I would request you to post an article on this very valuable procurment citing pros & cons, the delay factor, which is the best aircraft according to the Indian needs, Can IAF go for more than 1 vendor etc

    The articles & news on this subject (IAF MMRCA )have been very few and far in between :-(

    Thanks in advance
    Anadi

    Reply to this Comment
     

    Re: IAF MMRCA
    By vkthakur on Monday, December 29, 2008 (EST)
    Anadi,

    If you enter MRCA in the search box and click on Go you will see some articles on the options before the IAF and what I believe is the best choice for the service.

    These posts were made in 2005, but remain relevant even today, though the time lapse is a chilling reminder of how lightly the nation's security is viewed by our politicians!

    Reply to this Comment
     

    Assuming an air attack
    By flying eagle on Monday, December 29, 2008 (EST)
    Commander Thakur- in case we decide to launch an air attack on pakistani positions how are we positioned to counter their

    1. Crotale SAM and SPADA SAM systems since the former is a legacy system with a radius of 60 KM

    2. do we have enough intelligent - PGM - munitions to take out their targets?

    3. assuming we have an AWACS in place, wouldnt you rate our chances of carrying this out to be extremely high.

    4. what chances does the PAF have against us? i thought they didnt even have BVR capability till recently


    what are your reasons for worrying about a PAF counter attack. let us assume that cruise missiles are not used.


    Reply to this Comment
     

    Re: Assuming an air attack
    By vkthakur on Tuesday, December 30, 2008 (EST)
    > Commander Thakur- in case we decide to launch an air attack on pakistani positions how are we positioned to counter their

    > 1. Crotale SAM and SPADA SAM systems since the former is a legacy system with a radius of 60 KM

    IAF does not have Wild Weasel aircraft tasked with the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses, which means attacking IAF aircraft will be targeted by SAM. Even antiquated SAMs can prove lethal. Besides, when a missile misses a fighter it often manages to defang an attacking aircraft, because the threatened aircraft is forced to jettisons its weapon load to take evasive maneuver!

    > 2. do we have enough intelligent - PGM - munitions to take out their targets?

    The use of PGM requires local air superiority because they have to be delivered from relatively high altitudes which make the attacking aircraft susceptible to SAMs. Our stock of PGM continues to be very limited.

    > 3. assuming we have an AWACS in place, wouldn’t you rate our chances of carrying this out to be extremely high.

    We don’t have AWACS currently. Even after they are delivered to us it will likely take the IAF 3-5 years to fully absorb them. Once integrated, AWACS would give us an advantage against defending PAF fighters, but not SAMs.

    > 4. what chances does the PAF have against us? i thought they didn’t even have BVR capability till recently

    Not all IAF aircraft have BVR capability. The Su-30MKI can provide limited geographical coverage. They maybe superior to PAF F-16’s but they are not invincible. Event the Raptor is not invincible against PAF fighters. It will just have an advantage.

    > what are your reasons for worrying about a PAF counter attack. let us assume that cruise missiles are not used.

    PAF counter attacks will be as ineffective as IAF attacks. The only worry is of the conflict spiraling out of control into a full scale war.

    Reply to this Comment
     

    some more questions
    By flying eagle on Tuesday, December 30, 2008 (EST)
    thank you Cdr Thakur for your patient replies.

    could you write an article or explain in a few paragraphs what our strategic purchases or acquisitions should be to develop a clear advantage over pakistan.

    my concern is that the pakistanis are getting the erieye and if they add that to their JF-17 numbers they would be able to neturalize the advantage (though not overwhelming) that we have with the Su-MKI.

    what aircraft or technology do we need to purchase or integrate for supression of enemy air defenses?
    how can we take out their SAMs?
    do we need to look at something like Glonass guided muinitions?
    finally are you satisfied with the Barak SAM systems that we seem to be moving forward with?

    i understand that between the faulty strategy of indigenisation and some short sightedness we have not acquired the right weapon systems.

    how would Cdr Thakur do this differently ? what are our gaps and how do we plug them.


    Reply to this Comment
     

    Kargil
    By Anadi on Wednesday, December 31, 2008 (EST)
    Hi,

    As a reference we can look back at the role played by IAF during the Kargil conflict.

    Pak army had shoulder bourne SAMs which were frequently used against incoming IAF planes destined for ground attack.

    As per records of IAF ( as published on official sites) not a sigle plane was hit. Only 1 mig 27 was lost and that also was attributed to mal-functioning.

    We can draw conclusions on the ability of IAF fighter pilots & also the ability of Pak army rangers.

    Reply to this Comment
     

    Re: some more questions
    By vkthakur on Wednesday, December 31, 2008 (EST)
    Hopefully this will answer your questions

    http://kuku.sawf.org/Articles/55675.aspx

    Reply to this Comment
     

    Surgical Strikes
    By FaizHakim on Sunday, January 11, 2009 (EST)
    While the scenario you paint is plausible it implies that no matter what the size and the capability of our forces we are forever prevented from taking military action for provocations by our neighbors, except when they attack us!

    But I pose to you that if asymmetrical warfare has not been prevented even though we have nuclear weapons and a larger military what is there to prevent a limited strike by us even though Pakistan has nuclear weapons?

    I am of the opinion that the time has come for India to raise the cost of such adventurism on the part of Pakistan by making a "surgical strike" on terroist camps at the very least. If our strikes are "successful" and if Pakistan "retaliates" it will clearly be then siding with the terrorists and would invite further international isolation. Also we shall then hopefully put forth measured responses that will keep the conflict below the nuclear threshold. We have to take such a risk because in my opinion the repeated painful Islamic terrorism has become unbearable.

    Of course we need to continue to explore diplomatic channels in the meanwhile. However, now that we have given a list of terrorists and drawn the line on the ground Pakistan must hand over the guilty to prevent us from carrying out the aforementioned surgical strike. If Pakistan does not hand over the guilty and then if we do not take action we shall be perceived as a "soft" target forever and we would invite many Mumabi-like incidents in the future. In fact we have already seen many such incidents e.g. Parliament Attack, Akshardham Attack, Attack on Army encampment in Kashmir, etc, etc.

    In my opinion we must act not based upon heated passion but instead based upon cold calculated logic and in the interest of furure generations of Indians.

    Reply to this Comment
     

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