The Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh and the US President, Mr. George W. Bush during a photo session at the G-8 Summit in Heiligendamm, Germany on June 08, 2007. Photo Credit: PIBBy Vijainder K Thakur
April 23, 2008 - There has been a lot of debate on the Indo-US Nuclear deal, which now appears to be in a limbo, with little hope that it will become operational in the near future, since both India and the US are headed for elections.
No one in the country seems to be terribly disappointed with its impending demise, other than perhaps Manmohan Singh.
Opposed for the wrong reasons
The detractors of the treaty have their own reasons to oppose it; most of which are self serving. The left parties oppose it because it will put India in a deep alliance with the US, something that would put our country at loggerheads with China.
Most serious strategists, however, believe 'operationalizing' the treaty will make China sit up and take serious note of India, for the first time in recent history.
The left's take on the subject is dictated more by their inane servility and desire to cling to a defunct philosophy, which has long been abandoned worldwide, even in China.
The BJP likely opposes the agreement simply to embarrass the Manmohan Singh government (It is an embarrassing government all right!), despite its claim that it had India's strategic interest in mind.
The party believes, rightly so, that the treaty would not permit India to test nuclear weapons. It is a compelling argument but there is more to it, which the BJP will not talk about.
I believe lack of transparency on the part of our government, and the self serving stance of the Left, BJP and other political parties has prevented India from committing a serious folly.
However, you may find my reasons for saying so equally unpalatable. Here they are anyway.
We don't have a credible nuclear deterrent
India does not have a credible nuclear deterrent at this point of time, and cannot acquire one without additional testing of its warhead designs.
Our nuclear capability is deeply recessed. Unless the degradation in our strategic environment takes place over months, allowing us time to test and prove our warheads, we will not be able to factor in our nuclear assets into any conflict scenarios.
Claims of possessing a credible nuclear deterrent by Indian leaders have been few and always rhetorical, never categorical.
So while the BJP is right that the treaty will rule out nuclear testing, it is not just being completely honest about the situation.
We may never have a credible nuclear deterrent!
Even without the Indo-US nuclear deal an Indian government is unlikely to order nuclear testing, because the adverse reaction from the US and its allies would compromise our high rates of economic growth, strategically weakening us in the long run.
Nuclear testing will only be looked upon as an option if there were to be a serious deterioration in our strategic environment. In such a scenario we would test, treaty or no treaty.
So trashing the treaty on the grounds that it compromises our right to test nuclear weapons is balderdash.
An agreement is something that you can withdraw from at any time. Yes, agreements have an operative time frame, but it is only suggestive; a period during which both parties believe the treaty should need no revisions.
The real problem with the nuclear deal is that it will require India to create a huge and expensive infrastructure to utilize the nuclear fuel supplied to us under the treaty. Once the infrastructure is in place a withdrawal, though feasible, would be unpractical, because it will hurt the same strategic interests that would be trying to protect.
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