Pakistan's recent testing of the Babur cruise missile is sure to have rattled decision makers in New Delhi. Though there has been no official comment, reaction to the event in the Indian press is a good indicator that our government had no clue of what Pakistan was upto.
Initial press reports harped on the fact that the missile must have been developed with outside assistance, possibly from China. Big deal! Does that make the missile any less potent? Besides, the facade of joint production notwithstanding, our own Brahmos is really a derivative of the Russian Yakhont missile, tweaked to conform to the limitations of the MTCR regime. Incidentally, while our Brahmos is chained to 300 km range limit for ever the Babur is already 200kms ahead!
There can be no denying that Pakistan has achieved a remarkable success in developing a sophisticated weapon system. I think rather than grudging Pakistan its success we should focus on the strategic implications of that success for us. In addition we need to focus on
- Our apparant dismal lack of strategic intelligence.
- The poor performance of our own weapon development programs vis-a-vis Pakistan.
Intelligence Failure
There is good circumstancial evidence to suggest that the Babur is based on off the shelf components procured by Pakistan from abroad.
The fact that the development of the missile by Pakistan went undetected was because of the fact that it was never developed by Pakistan. An attempt to build a cruise or a ballistic missile from scratch is easy to detect, even for Indian intelligence! Testing of unproven rocket motors requires building of physical infrastructure that can be detected by commercially available high resolution satellites.
Another indicator is the confidence expressed by General Pervez Musharaf in the capabilities of the Babur missile after just its first test. If a complex system, such as a cruise missile, were to be developed from scratch it would take years if not decades of testing to acquire the confidence that General Prevez Musharaf expressed. India's own labored effort with developing ballistic and air defense missile development illustrates my point.
One could suggest that the General was boasting and that the missile is neither fully developed nor as potent as he would want us and his countrymen to believe. Indeed, there is no denying the proclivity of the Pakistani establishment to boast. The following statement attributed to a Pakistani army spokesperson illustrates the point.
"It is a terrain hugging missile, which has the most advanced and modern navigation and guidance and a high degree of maneuverability and its technology enables it to avoid radar detection and penetrate undetected through any hostile defence system."
Clearly the "most advanced" and "penetrate through any hostile defense system" bits are boasts. However, a boast is not a bluff. When General Pervez Musharraf stated :-
"In quality, it (Babur) is far better. Brahmos has a range of 290-300 kilometres while … Babur can hit a target up to 500 kilometres".
He was, in all probabilites, grounded in facts and if that is so like the Brahmos, Pakistan's Babur is based on a well tested weapon system.
Clearly the Babur is not a home grown missile. Pakistan must have acquired the missile, its engines and electronics, all from abroad.
Acquisition of critical missile components and technology from abroad by Pakistan should not have been difficult for our intelligence agencies to detect. Our country has good relations with western nations and Ukraine from where the electronics for the Babur were probably sourced. There are understandable difficulties in penetrating a closed society like China. However, Indian intelligence can compensate by better infiltrating Pakistan and maintaining closer liason with intelligence agencies of other friendly countries. I for one would be very surprised if the Mossad was not aware of it! Afterall, the Babur could easily find its way into Iranian and Palestinian hands!
I think our focus should be on fixing our strategic intelligence apparatus so that Pakistan's purchase of critical missile components and technology abroad does not go undetected. Only then will we have an opportunity to prevent the dangerous escalation that seems to be taking place in the sub continent.
One would imagine that the Kargil fiasco would have woken up India to the need for good intelligence. Apparantly, it has not.
Frankly, a nuclear weapon state with such a pathetic strategic intelligence gathering capability as India is a danger to the entire world.
Indigenous Weapon Development
Measured by any yardstick, India's own weapon development progams have performed very poorly. When compared with efforts in Pakistan our failings appear magnified.
If it has not so far dawned on our government that DRDO has been leading the nation up the garden path for decades now, it should now.
Pakistan with the success of its Khalid MBT, JF-17 Combat Fighter and Missile development programs has shown that it is more cost effective to build on existing technology procured from abroad rather than create it. Indeed, our own Brahmos program illustrates the same.
However, DRDO does not seem to have learnt any lessons. It continue to leverage its indigneous slogan, which has a compelling appeal to the sentiments of the uninformed masses, to grow in size and inefficiency. Its steady bloat is suckering the country out of its resources enfeebling, rather than strengthening it.
Conclusion
With the first test of the Babur cruise missile Pakistan has achieved a remarkable success. The missile itself poses little threat to India. The boasts of the Pakistani army spokesperson notwithstanding, cruise missiles can be detected and engaged. For example the F-18E/D with a AN/APG-79 AESA Radar and AIM-120 air to air missile can detect and engage a missile such as the Babur.
Enagagement of cruise missile will be greatly assisted by the acquisition and the integration of the Phalcon AWACS from Israel in the years to come.
Unlike ballistic missiles a subsonic cruise missile takes a significant amount of time to reach its target. This allows for a multiple layered defense.
The threat to India will continue to be from ballistic missile that Pakistan fields now and in the future.
The above perspective notwithstanding the Babur missile test does highlight the failures in Indian intelligence and defense production. These are serious failures considering that we are right in the middle of two nuclear armed and aggressive adversaries. The country's leadership should not only address these failures but assure the nation that they will not be repeated.
Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. May not be reproduced without explicit written permission