While discussing India's possible acquisition of PAC-3 missiles from the US, General Pervez Musharraf told Pakistani journalists at a press conference in Lahore Monday that it would be "quite difficult for India to install such an expensive system for defending multiple targets. For defending say 20 targets, it would have to deploy 1,000-2,000 Patriot missiles. Even if that defense mechanism stopped five incoming missiles, another five would penetrate. "

What General Musharraf stated were facts. I had said pretty much the same thing in my recent article PAC-3 Investment in missile defense could be a blunder. However, there is a difference between a blogger like me expressing his worst fears on a sparingly read forum and the head of state of a nuclear armed nation confirming them to the world at large! One would expect the head of state to express a more balanced view. But then that would be possible only if the concerned head of state had a more balanced view!

PAC-3 A New Equation

India has no reasons to be uneasy about anything that Pakistan can field against it militarily. Not their weapons and certainly not their soldiers. The only thing India needs to be uneasy about is the untamed aggression that the Pakistani army continues to nurture against India. An aggression that emanates from a delusion that Pakistan can best its more powerful neighbor. General Musharraf's statements, quoted above, are a disturbing manifestation of the delusional mindset.

In order to elaborate let me go back to what General Musharraf reportedly said - that even if the United States sold its Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missile batteries to India, Pakistan's nuclear missile arsenal was numerous and powerful enough to overwhelm it! As I have already admitted General Musharraf was stating facts. However, he was not stating all the facts and therein lies the delusion.

If Pakistan were to launch a first strike, indeed it would easily overwhelm any PAC-3 systems that India may deploy. However, what if India were to launch the first strike? A precision counter force strike with its more accurate missiles and backed by good field and satellite intelligence? Such a first strike could conceivably take out a major part of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Any retaliatory Pakistani counter value strike on Indian cities would be weak because of a depleted arsenal. This is where the PAC-3 could play their role, by making the weak response even weaker.

Should the above scenario not worry General Musharraf? Actually, it should not and I will give you my reasons why later. First, however, let us try and fathom General Musharraf's reasons for not being worried, going purely by his tone. They are

• India's more accurate missiles are not accurate enough for a surgical first strike.
• India lacks the intelligence apparatus that such a first strike must necessarily be backed with.
• The idea of an Indian first strike probably sounds as ridiculous to General Musharraf as it does to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. General Musharraf knows for a fact that any nuclear conflict in the sub continent will be initiated by Pakistan, not India.

Now let me give you the real reason why General Musharraf should not be worried on account of any PAC-3 deployment by India. The truth is, following an Indian first strike, even a very weak counter value nuclear strike by Pakistan could get through the PAC-3 cover. That possibility would be devastating enough to make it unacceptable to the Indian democratic leadership. Just one nuclear weapon landing on an Indian metropolis is an unacceptable cost. To understand why it is unacceptable all you need is a little bit of imagination. Quiet simply, General Musharraf, sanity and nuclear warfare do not go together.

Conclusion

Pakistan's aggressions in the past - 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1998 have largely been fuelled by a delusion harbored by their military that they can best India and wrest Kashmir from it. The current Pakistani military leadership doesn't appear to have shed that delusion.

Unfortunately a lot of Pakistan's aggression is fueled by India's defensive mindset and posture. India needs to match Pakistan's offensive mindset with a combination of an equally offensive mindset and greater financial muscle. Pakistan needs a visible and persistent reality check because now the stakes are much higher. Our adversary is armed with nuclear weapons and does not apparently understand that nuclear wars cannot be fought and won. Not by India, and certainly not by Pakistan.

India can provide the needed reality check more effectively by developing more accurate missiles and satellite based surveillance, not by deploying PAC-3s.