There are indications that India is re-evaluating its option of acquiring the PAC-3 system. If true, this is good.

There is a clear danger in diverting billions of dollars from the defense budget into a missile defense system like th PAC-3. Such an investment can only be at the cost of acquiring greater offensive capability for our armed forces.

Pakistan can be expected to take full advantage of our defensive mindset by rapidly increasing its offensive capability and consequently giving itself greater room to maneuvre during hostilities.

A recent report in ISN Security Watch suggests that Pakistan is already exploiting the 10-year defense agreement with the US that Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee inked on 29 Jun 2005 to its advantage.

To assuage Pakistan's vociferously expressed concerns over the possible sale of PAC-3 systems to Inida the US has offered to sell Pakistan over half a dozen naval Hawkeye-2000 surveillance aircraft!

Air Department personnel prepare an E-2C Hawkeye, assigned to the "Eagles" of Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron One One Three (VAW-113), for launch on the flight deck aboard the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76). Ronald Reagan is currently underway in the Pacific Ocean conducting Tailored Ships Training Availability (TSTA). U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate 3rd Class Aaron Burden

Reportedly, over the weekend, the commander of the USS Nimitz, Rear Admiral Peter H Daley, held a briefing on board the nuclear-powered carrier about the features of the spy aircraft for the delegation of Pakistan defense officials led by Defense Secretary General Tariq Wasim Ghazi, a retired general.

Two Hawkeye aircraft were also flown to Pakistan’s naval station in Karachi, PNS Mehran, for a special demonstration.

Curiously enough, Pakistani officials also inspected F-18 jets during their visit on board the Nimitz. Indeed there is no reason to believe that the offer of F/A-18s to India was exlcusive. If the US can offer to sell F-16s to India after selling them to Pakistan there is no reason why it cannot sell F/A-18s to Pakistan after convincing India to buy them.

As far as the US is concerned it is in a heads I win tails you loose position.

Defense Comes After Offense

There are other reasons why an investment in any missile defense system should be avoided at this stage. A theatre missile defense like the PAC-3 makes sense only if you have the offensive capability to attack and take out most adversary missiles well before they are launched. This is so because a system like the PAC-3 is not perfect to begin with. Even a solitary missile has a chance of getting through it. Worst still the system can be overwhelmed by targetting the defended area with multiple missile. The cost of targetting an area with an increasing number of missiles is a lot lesser than the cost of defending it with increasing number of PAC-3 systems.

India's defensive mindset has been very well exploited in the past by our adversaries. Take the case of the IAF. For almost three decades (1970 - 2000) nearly half of its fleet consisted of MiG-21 variants all of which are interceptors. Even there a large part of the limited attack force, consisting of MiG-23BNs and MiG-27, lacked a real punch. There can be little doubt that as far as Pakistani adventurism is concerned the pinprick strike force of IAF did more to encourage it than its more credible interceptor force did to discourage it.