Missile Defense - Not Something That India Will Enter Into Lightly

Since India's Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee signed a 10-year defense agreement with the US on 29 Jun 2005 speculation has been rife that India is set to acquire the PAC-3 anti missile system and gain access to sensitive dual use nuclear and space technology.

A rather upbeat statement released after the signing had stated - “The United States and India have entered a new era.”

Pranab Mukherjee himself had been somewhat more circumspect when he said - “I feel there is a possibility of a change.”

According to Agence France-Presse, Indian and US officials had agreed to create a “defense procurement and production group” for oversight of defense-related exchanges and sales.

In this context an earlier statement from Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control Stephen Rademaker, reported by Agence France-Presse on Jun 17, 2005, is of interest. He was quoted as saying - “We are willing to talk to India about missile defense. Missile defense is very expensive. So, it is not something that India will enter into lightly.”

I think the media read too much into the, "We are willing to talk to India about missile defense" part of Stephen Rademaker statement and too little into the part where he said, "Missile defense is very expensive. So, it is not something that India will enter into lightly."

A Turn About

In what appears to be a startling turn about, a report by Agence France-Presse yesterday reported that India has no plans to purchase a missile defense system from the United States. It quoted Pranab Mukherjee as saying, "There is no question of accepting (a) missile shield from anyone."

He went on to say, "What we are interested in is developing our own missile program and we are doing that."

If India was indeed interested in acquiring PAC-3s from the US its likely the price tag that it was shown in Washington made it change its mind. Perhaps there were other unacceptable conditions.

Mr Mukherjee was probably playing to the gallery when he said, "There is no question of accepting (a) missile shield from anyone."

More intriguing was his contention, “What we are interested in is developing our own missile program and we are doing that.” I hope his intent was to not convey that India was developing its own anti missile system. That is balderdash. The Akash missile system is currently unproven even as an anti aircraft system. It could be decades before DRDL is able to demonstrate a kinetic hit-to-kill capability that our defense forces could rely on.

I would feel happier if Mr Mukherjee meant the statement to be just a politically dextrous non information. We are after all developing our own missile program.

I think what has happened has happened for the best. The cost of acquiring a PAC-3 system, monetary as well as political, would have been just too high for India to afford, even though the strategic imperative for doing so exists.

India needs to move into the missile defense arena more cautiously in order to manage costs. Besides pushing DRDL for results we could look at the cheaper S-300/400 systems.