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    Indo - US Nuclear Deal - Heading Southward?
    Posted by on Saturday, April 22, 2006 (EST)
    The proclivity of the Indian bureaucracy to shape strategic postures from a moral high ground is a recipe for failure. It has got us into trouble in the past and it may well result in a quite but regretful burial for the recent Indo - US Nuclear Deal.
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    In an earlier column on the subject I had pointed out that India's commitment under the recent agreement with the US to continue its moratorium on nuclear weapon testing constituted a strategic sellout since India does not yet have a credible nuclear deterrent and when the treaty becomes operative it will never be able to acquire one.

    While the sellout of strategic interest is regretful even more painful has been the duplicity of the Indian bureaucracy, and even the Prime Minister, in misleading the people and even the parliament. The abject incompetence of the Indian main stream media has ensured that the self deluding spin of Indian bureaucrats has continued to prevail.

    In this connection the role being played, or not played, by publicly funded think tanks like the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis (IDSA) is also a case in point. The organization is increasingly functioning as a body that provides re-employment opportunity for retired defense officers rather than an institutional pillar of India's strategic establishment.

    The Imperative to Test Nuclear Weapons

    It comes as no surprise, therefore, that it was left to a US official to point out that India will need to test nuclear weapons in order to develop a credible deterrents against China.

    Henry Sokolski, director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and a former Defense Department nonproliferation official recently said, "There are a lot of technical reasons why they’ve got to do it...You’re going to want to go thermonuclear, they can’t do that without testing."

    He was referring to the fact that without a reliable thermonuclear weapon and a long range missile that can target big Chinese cities like Beijing in a retaliatory counter value strike, India will never have a credible nuclear deterrent.

    It has been suggested that most bomb designs can be tested to a very high level of certainty with advanced computer simulations. Nothing could be farther from the truth; at least as far as Indian computer simulation capability and data bank are concerned. If there was any truth in the argument in the Indian context our tests of thermo nuclear weapons in 1998 would not have failed.

    Signing Off Our Right to Test Nuclear Weapons

    Even as the Indian press and public are beginning to comprehend the strategic perfidy of the deal Indian bureaucracy continues to be unrelenting in generating its self deluding spin. The emphasis now seems to be on the make believe that India has not actually relinquished its option to test nuclear weapons. The spin is obviously making some folks dizzy and it is not the people but the bureaucrats themselves.

    The proposed amendment to US law that will make the US - Indian Nuclear deal operative requires that the US president periodically certify that India has not detonated a nuclear explosive device. Effectively this clause converts India's voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapon testing to a legally binding ban, violation of which will result in a termination of the agreement.

    While speaking with Karan Thapar on CNN-IBN Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran somewhat facetiously asserted that India's commitment to continue its moratorium on nuclear weapon tests is not part of the deal. Nothing can be farther from the truth.

    Both the agreements on the subject, the one signed recently during the visit of President Bush to New Delhi and the one signed earlier in July 2005 when the Indian Prime Minister visited the US, explicitly state that India will continue to observe its voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapon testing. So it is a part of the deal Mr Saran.

    A treaty commitment by India to continue its voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapon testing is de facto a legally binding ban on nuclear weapon testing. There can be no other interpretation.

    It has been reported that a team of U.S. officials is expected in New Delhi in the next two weeks to continue negotiations on the U.S.-Indian nuclear sharing agreement. The United States has submitted a draft of the deal that would forbid India from ever again testing a nuclear weapon, according to Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesman Navtej Sarna.

    Sarna said the U.S. draft of the agreement dictates that cooperation between the countries would stop following an Indian nuclear test.

    Conclusion

    The proclivity of the Indian bureaucracy to shape strategic postures from a moral high ground is a recipe for failure. It has got us into trouble in the past and it may well result in a quite but regretful burial for the recent Indo - US Nuclear Deal.

    It is time for India to state in unambiguous terms that India desperately needs a credible nuclear deterrent against China. That India does not have one already. That without nuclear testing India could never acquire such a deterrent.

    I do not believe such an unambiguous posture will kill the deal for the simple reason that when facing China the US needs India on its side as much as India needs the US on its side. Without a strategic alliance with India the US is heading towards a humiliation on Taiwan within the next 10-15 years - an event that could well end the era of US global dominance.

    Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. May not be reproduced without explicit written permission.

    Related topics

  • US India Nuclear Agreement – Economic Bonanza and Strategic Sellout
  • Did India Sell Itself Short?

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    Comments:

    Indo-us deal
    By beswaminathan on Tuesday, May 30, 2006 (EST)
    based on retospect. what i feel is lets don't bury ourselves with US. we can have good artillery from Russia and systems from Israel.naval things from france. aero items from Germany. germans are good at technology. but i feel they don't want to publish themselves.

    we can have good deal from US like permanent membership in UN.

    Reply to this Comment
     

    NATO-India
    By sujan on Wednesday, September 27, 2006 (EST)
    This story may be of interest to you:

    FROM SUJAN DUTTA

    The Telegraph,Calcutta,India/September 23 2006/ www.telegraphindia.com

    NATO HEADQUARTERS, BRUSSELS, Sept 22 : The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation – NATO – wants Indian troops for its missions in some of the most volatile regions of the world including Afghanistan and Kosovo, diplomats and officials of the military alliance told a group of South Asian journalists here on Thursday and Friday.

    Indian “boots on the ground” would be part of a wider engagement that NATO envisages with non-member states and the 26-member grouping of mostly North American and Western European nations.

    NATO’s engagement with India – that is currently referred to by the diplomats as a “contact country” – to demarcate it from more intense relations connotated by the phrase “partner country” – is a thought-through process. The alliance does not expect Indian troops for its missions overnight but as a consequence of a protracted engagement that will drive policy change in New Delhi and reforms within NATO itself.

    “Indian boots on the ground is one of the options – not the only one – in our relations”, a senior diplomat said.

    The beginnings of a NATO-India relations have been made at two levels. First, NATO headquarters has conducted two briefings for Indian diplomats in Brussels. The briefings were described as “preliminary”. Second, the NATO secretary general Jaap de Hoop Schaffer met Indian defence minister Pranab Mukherjee on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday. The NATO secretary general was said to have discussed Afghanistan and the security situation in South Asia. The meeting was one of several that Schaffer held with leaders from other countries.

    Speaking for NATO headquarters, Simone de Manso said “the (Schaffer-Mukherjee) discussions were good”.

    For New Delhi, the beginning of an active engagement with NATO drives foreign policy into a super-charged environment.

    First, India is a founder country of the Non Aligned Mission. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh returned from its latest summit in Havana, Cuba, only last week. The Non Aligned Mission was so called to distinguish itself from the NATO and Warsaw Pact (Soviet Bloc) countries. But with the Cold War now history, NATO itself has transformed into an alliance with global linkages that span across continents.

    Second, in 2004, US Preseident George Bush identified Pakistan as a “major non NATO ally” to the chagrin of New Delhi here now are the stirrings of a NATO relationship with India.

    Third, New Delhi will also have to consider a rewriting of its policy under which Indian troops deploy overseas only under UN mandates and as part of UN peace missions. But NATO diplomats say mechanisms have been evolved to allow for non-member states to associate with NATO by marrying NATO deployments to UN mandates (Afghanistan and Kosovo, for example).

    De Manso said the NATO secretary general’s meeting with defence minister Mukherjee was one of several bilateral meetingson the sidelines of the UNGA. But the significance is that it was held as NATO prepares for its summit meeting in Riga on November 28 and November 29. Ministerial meetings leading to the summit are drafting an agenda in which associations with partner countries are likely to figure majorly.

    Over Thursday and Friday, NATO diplomats at headquarters in Brussels and military officials at the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) – NATO’s military headquarters an hour’s drive from the Belgian capital – briefed a team of journalists, including The Telegraph correspondent, from South Asia. The diplomats were from the US and Dutch delegations and the NATO secretariat. SHAPE officials were from the UK, the US and Hungary. The officials requested not to be identified.

    Options envisaging Indian participation in NATO missions that figured during the briefings incuded:

    # Straight-forward deployment of an Indian military element alongside or as part of the International Stabilisation and Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.

    # Provision of assents – such as transport aircraft and troop carriers – for NATO deployments with K-FOR, the NATO force in Kosovo, to relieve some of the pressure on NATO member states whose militaries are overstretched with multiple expeditionary missions


    The officials and diplomats emphasized that in both Afghanistan and Kosovo NATO military contingents were acting under UN-mandated missions. They cited the examples of Australia, South Korea and Japan and Central Asian countries that were not NATO members but were engaged with the alliance with boots on the ground.

    The stirrings of a NATO-Indian involvement come in the wake of frequent military interactions between India and the US over the last four years through joint exercises, reciprocal visits and dialogue. In 2003, India rejected a US request to participate in stabilization forces in Iraq (where NATO is involved only with a small military training contingent).

    Indian and US military officials have often described the bilateral military engagements as drills in “inter-operability” – a keyword that echoes at NATO headquarters – and means the ability of militaries of different nations to act in consonance.

    The interest in India also comes when NATO’s military leaders are worried about force-generation. In Afghanistan right now, for example, NATO is looking for a task force, a reserve of upto 2500 troops, as ISAF contingents deploy in the volatile south around Kandahar.

    NATO missions are vastly different in nature from the UN peace missions that the Indian military is habituated to. One NATO diplomat said “we are much more robust” – meaning more aggressive in comparision to UN peacekeeping and observation assignments. Also – and this will weight heavily with Indian diplomats as they engage with NATO – NATO member-states and troop contributors fund and train their own contingents in military deployments. This is vastly different from UN missions for which troop contributors such as India are fully-funded by the world body.

    Reply to this Comment
     

    Urgent : India needs a Doctor
    By Ruddy on Tuesday, November 28, 2006 (EST)
    The whole Nuclear Deal throws up more questions than answers and unless we know the answers to the following 5 questions , we cannot judge the strategic thinking of the indian forces , policy makers.

    1) What is the vision and identity of India , in this century and for the next few centuries?
    2)How do we look at ourselves - as potential Power Pole or a perpetual Slave to East , West , North and South ??
    3) How unified is the Indian assessment and planning to deal with strategic threats ?
    4) How efficient are the organisations that are supposed to deliver on the strategic plans?
    5) How reliable and effective is our Strategic intelligence?

    Once these questions and their answers are clear to our policy makers - strategic or civilian , we cannot find the 'will' to develop and deploy and enforce our policies on potential friends or foes.

    Once we have the will , we will find that Indian Brain Power has enough limitless fuel to develop far more stunning and shocking applications and platforms to help our strategic goals.

    We should be leading the technology development in all fields . learn and adapt instead of depending on 'hope' that external powers would be reasonable. The very fact that today most of India is at the mercy of US , EU , China and Russian Nuclear rationality is very shocking - i cant even sleep peacefully - i am just a student and if thats how i feel , i wonder how any strategic planner , or a policy maker can ! but they do !

    We need ICBMs , MRBMs , SRBMS , Nukes of every kind , shape and capacity , We need 'killer' satellites , spy satellites , We need Electromagnetic GigaWatt Beam weapons . We need a 5 kinds of missile shield ,a strategic submarine Force and a strategic Ionospheric loitering Interceptor Force. India should dominate Land , Space , Air , Sea and Undersea. All these and everything else our super sharp guys and girls can come up with in the future.

    India is more than just a country - it represnets a value system , an in built world order that is exactly what the world needs. We need to dislodge Darwinian Jungle Law propogated by a myopic West and replace it with a Just World Order , which frankly and objectively only India can offer and Deliver - ie , if it identifies and views itself so.

    Now our political class is so rooted in self delusion and a lack of vision , it is shocking we eve n manage the word ' strategic ' in a credible sense. These rascals leak like a roof made of a fishing net ! What we need is a political class that doesnt come from Italy or is on the payroll of KGB or CIA!

    As a hard working student , a son of the soil , i feel helpless and hopeless , i cannot stand the presense of these anti-nationals , beurocrats and politicians , also some pussy cat generals and corrupt admirals and air marshals. India needs a good Doctor. I am afraid , the time for a secong Chanakya is ripe and this time the Chanakya may not be so kind.

    Reply to this Comment
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    Re: India needs a doctor
    By beswaminathan on Wednesday, November 29, 2006 (EST)
    I certainly agree 100% to the author views. at the same time let me like to share my opinion. On the whole what we need is a change to the existing system. the change what i mean is everything starting from "Human rights to employee rights n his office". change can't be done by a single person, like the military coup by a single person in our neighboring country. it can happen only when the democracy is weak. ours is educated autocrats, meaning all the individuals by himself in someway are selfish to achieve materialistic goals. so change can happen gradually perhaps the upcoming generation. for that today an average human being life is decided mainly by his educational value. for this the education system in our country has to be changed. subsequently the labor rights has to be revised. so the upcoming generation can definitely bring in our change. An immediate change if needs to happen means we need some one like "anniyan" or "robin hood". first we need to realize that the existing citizens of INDIA are by them self leading a slavery life to the politicians. first this has to be changed then we will move on to looking outside.

    I know how to design a detonating device which looks like a computer CD-ROM drive when viewed from outside and it can be fitted to a computer tower and that device can be triggered by wireless. like this i have many ideas but there is no one to encourage or motivate me.as the time passes the vigor got attenuated. finally it perishes.

    regarding the nuclear issue. I always believe in 1 thing, don't create any room for Americans. they are the people who created terrorism by biological weapons. never ever fall as a pray to American beasts.

    bye
    SAM

    Reply to this Comment
     

    Re: India needs a doctor
    By shantanu on Wednesday, February 07, 2007 (EST)
    I agree with many of ruddy's view points
    One thing I am not sure is whether our scientists/engineers at DRDO are capable of producing advanced or world class weaponary.
    I think our leaders should change the mindset and allow private participation as much as they can deliver and competition is always good.
    What I also don't understand why we need to have a deal with the US.Do we not have the technology? and if we don't have it what were the scients at DAE or other such organizations doing all this time?
    Somebody please shead light on this for me

    Reply to this Comment
     

    India needs a doctor
    By beswaminathan on Monday, February 12, 2007 (EST)
    This was the query put by many people. As im working in a Central Govt organisation, let me put my views(opinions)

    # A scientist need not create a new technology when existing thing takes less time to adopt and implement. when you ask about the capability of the scientists at DRDO, so far we have adopted a culture of only purchasing things from west or russia. this is b'cos when there is a war panic we are forced to posses some sophisticated weapons like sidewinder & AAMRAM missiles. these missiles are having proven record in hitting the target. when u ask about home made. It will take time to frame a idea, conceptualizing, designing, prototyping, testing, certification & integration. these things will take years as every step needs a approval and budget allotment. So far we byte our chest saying "indigenously developed" this in real world is doing reverse engineering. you had dinner in a multi cuisine, some how you like the taste of a new recipe you just had and you want to experiment it in your home. now you follow these steps

    # either you ask the person who made it or you search online to know the ingredients or finally you observe what items added in it and based on the taste you experienced. you will formulate a plan. finally you cross check with what you observed with your friends(group discussion). some how you prepare the same dish successfully and circalate the procedure thru email to your friends and say "home made"(indigenously developed).

    now from the above scenario
    now from the above scenario tell me

    # what effort you have put to create that. simply i would say reverse engineering or plagiarism. like that the same thing happens in INDIA.

    regarding arms trade. now our reactors are left without fuel. there may be a embargo bcos of that the NSG around the world may refrain from supplying it. unless we have a very big volumnous usage we can't prepare everything, also the budget available. the best thing may be outsourcing.

    regarding the weapons manufacture. when you say you want 1000 missiles. ten its a job prouction, say 1000 missiles every 3 months. then its a mass production. the cost involved in producing such things should be receoverable. may be you can sell it(like brahmos) or wage war with any country for lame things like "OIL". test all your weapons in that country and have a proof of its capabiliy. so for our purpose we don't require those weapons with a high inventory. hence its more economical to buy them from outside. when buying outside get it from the same vendor as it will require less training and upgradation also will be easier.

    We have a indigenous system of politics. Huhh!

    hope the coming generation will bring in a good change.

    bye
    Jaihind

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