In an earlier column on the subject I had pointed out that India's commitment under the recent agreement with the US to continue its moratorium on nuclear weapon testing constituted a strategic sellout since India does not yet have a credible nuclear deterrent and when the treaty becomes operative it will never be able to acquire one.
While the sellout of strategic interest is regretful even more painful has been the duplicity of the Indian bureaucracy, and even the Prime Minister, in misleading the people and even the parliament. The abject incompetence of the Indian main stream media has ensured that the self deluding spin of Indian bureaucrats has continued to prevail.
In this connection the role being played, or not played, by publicly funded think tanks like the Institute of Defense Studies and Analysis (IDSA) is also a case in point. The organization is increasingly functioning as a body that provides re-employment opportunity for retired defense officers rather than an institutional pillar of India's strategic establishment.
The Imperative to Test Nuclear Weapons
It comes as no surprise, therefore, that it was left to a US official to point out that India will need to test nuclear weapons in order to develop a credible deterrents against China.
Henry Sokolski, director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and a former Defense Department nonproliferation official recently said, "There are a lot of technical reasons why they’ve got to do it...You’re going to want to go thermonuclear, they can’t do that without testing."
He was referring to the fact that without a reliable thermonuclear weapon and a long range missile that can target big Chinese cities like Beijing in a retaliatory counter value strike, India will never have a credible nuclear deterrent.
It has been suggested that most bomb designs can be tested to a very high level of certainty with advanced computer simulations. Nothing could be farther from the truth; at least as far as Indian computer simulation capability and data bank are concerned. If there was any truth in the argument in the Indian context our tests of thermo nuclear weapons in 1998 would not have failed.
Signing Off Our Right to Test Nuclear Weapons
Even as the Indian press and public are beginning to comprehend the strategic perfidy of the deal Indian bureaucracy continues to be unrelenting in generating its self deluding spin. The emphasis now seems to be on the make believe that India has not actually relinquished its option to test nuclear weapons. The spin is obviously making some folks dizzy and it is not the people but the bureaucrats themselves.
The proposed amendment to US law that will make the US - Indian Nuclear deal operative requires that the US president periodically certify that India has not detonated a nuclear explosive device. Effectively this clause converts India's voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapon testing to a legally binding ban, violation of which will result in a termination of the agreement.
While speaking with Karan Thapar on CNN-IBN Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran somewhat facetiously asserted that India's commitment to continue its moratorium on nuclear weapon tests is not part of the deal. Nothing can be farther from the truth.
Both the agreements on the subject, the one signed recently during the visit of President Bush to New Delhi and the one signed earlier in July 2005 when the Indian Prime Minister visited the US, explicitly state that India will continue to observe its voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapon testing. So it is a part of the deal Mr Saran.
A treaty commitment by India to continue its voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapon testing is de facto a legally binding ban on nuclear weapon testing. There can be no other interpretation.
It has been reported that a team of U.S. officials is expected in New Delhi in the next two weeks to continue negotiations on the U.S.-Indian nuclear sharing agreement. The United States has submitted a draft of the deal that would forbid India from ever again testing a nuclear weapon, according to Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesman Navtej Sarna.
Sarna said the U.S. draft of the agreement dictates that cooperation between the countries would stop following an Indian nuclear test.
Conclusion
The proclivity of the Indian bureaucracy to shape strategic postures from a moral high ground is a recipe for failure. It has got us into trouble in the past and it may well result in a quite but regretful burial for the recent Indo - US Nuclear Deal.
It is time for India to state in unambiguous terms that India desperately needs a credible nuclear deterrent against China. That India does not have one already. That without nuclear testing India could never acquire such a deterrent.
I do not believe such an unambiguous posture will kill the deal for the simple reason that when facing China the US needs India on its side as much as India needs the US on its side. Without a strategic alliance with India the US is heading towards a humiliation on Taiwan within the next 10-15 years - an event that could well end the era of US global dominance.
Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. May not be reproduced without explicit written permission.
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